Russia’s Preemptive Action: Kursk Incursion Foreseen Months in Advance, Documents Reveal
Russia’s military command had been preparing for Ukraine’s incursion into its Kursk region for several months, as revealed by a cache of documents seized by the Ukrainian army from abandoned Russian positions in the area. The documents, shared with the Guardian, shed light on the disarray among Russian forces following Ukraine’s attack in early August. They also highlight concerns about morale within the ranks in Kursk, particularly after the tragic suicide of a soldier who had been struggling with depression due to his service in the Russian army.
The authenticity of the documents, which appear to be genuine Russian army communications, could not be independently verified by the Guardian. However, the Ukrainian special operations team that seized them confirmed their origin from Russian interior ministry, FSB, and army buildings in the Kursk region. These documents include printed orders distributed to various units as well as handwritten logs detailing events and concerns at specific positions. The earliest entries date back to late 2023, with the most recent documents just six weeks before Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk on August 6th.
Warnings and Preparations
The documents primarily come from units of Russia’s 488th Guards Motorised Rifle Regiment, specifically the second company of its 17th Battalion. They reveal that Russia had been anticipating a Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region for some time, with warnings dating back to early in the year. Orders were issued to prepare for potential breakthroughs at the state border and rapid pushes into Russian territory from the Sumy region. Specific plans targeting the town of Sudzha, which is now under Ukrainian control, were also documented in the months leading up to the incursion.
Despite these warnings and preparations, the Ukrainian attack on August 6th caught many by surprise, including Moscow’s western partners and the Ukrainian elite. The Russian military documents detail months of strategic warnings and defensive measures taken to repel the anticipated incursion. However, the disorganization among Russian forces and the subsequent retreat allowed Ukraine to gain control of Sudzha within a week of the attack.
Challenges and Consequences
During the chaotic retreat, Ukrainian forces captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, including many conscripts who were ill-prepared for battle. The plight of these captured soldiers, such as 22-year-old Vadim Kopylov, was highlighted by his parents in a tearful video appeal for his release. The documents also provide insight into Russian tactics, including the creation of decoy positions to confuse Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and prevent enemy infiltration behind Russian lines.
Issues of morale and mental health among Russian soldiers are evident throughout the documents, with reports of suicides and nervous breakdowns due to prolonged depression. Unit commanders were instructed to identify soldiers at risk and transfer them to military medical facilities to prevent further incidents. Additional measures were implemented to maintain soldiers’ psychological condition, including daily consumption of Russian state media and political instruction aimed at boosting morale.
In conclusion, the cache of documents seized by the Ukrainian army from abandoned Russian positions in the Kursk region offers a rare glimpse into the strategic preparations, challenges, and consequences of Russia’s preemptive action against Ukraine’s incursion. The revelations underscore the complexity and human cost of modern warfare, highlighting the importance of effective leadership, morale, and mental health support within military ranks.
