Kemi Badenoch’s personal approval ratings as she begins her leadership of the Tory party are not as high as those of Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson when they started, a recent Opinium poll for the Observer shows. Badenoch’s net approval rating, which measures the difference between those who approve and disapprove of her performance, is at -5%. This puts her below Sunak and Johnson in terms of initial popularity. The only former party leader in the past five years with a lower starting approval rating than Badenoch is Liz Truss, whose first rating was -9% after winning the leadership.
The poll reveals that Badenoch has divided voters, with 20% approving of her and 25% disapproving. Among those who voted for the Tories in the last election, 46% approve of her, while 36% feel neutral. Despite her negative net rating, Badenoch’s approval score is still better than the -22% Sunak received at the end of his leadership.
In comparison to Badenoch, Keir Starmer’s approval rating is low at -24 points, but it remains unchanged from the previous poll two weeks ago. However, when asked who they consider the best prime minister, voters prefer Starmer over Badenoch by 12 percentage points. This gap has widened since Sunak was still the Conservative leader, indicating a shift in public opinion.
Voters seem to recognize Badenoch as a leader with strong convictions, a trait that attracted many Tory MPs but also raised concerns among others. Early on in her leadership, voters see her as principled, brave, and decisive. The biggest gap between Badenoch and Starmer is on the attribute of bravery, with Badenoch scoring +8 compared to Starmer’s -19.
The Opinium poll also reflects the impact of Donald Trump’s re-election as US president on the UK electorate. The results show a split opinion, with 30% viewing Trump’s victory positively for the US and 44% seeing it as a negative development. While most Brits still view the UK and US as having common interests, only 56% consider the US an ally.
Additionally, more than 40% of respondents believe the UK should stand up for its beliefs, even if it means disagreeing with the US on certain issues. A significant portion also thinks that the UK’s defense spending is too low, with almost half of UK adults seeing Trump’s re-election as a negative for Ukraine.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium, notes that the recent re-election of Donald Trump has overshadowed British politics, causing concerns about international relationships and defense spending. Despite these challenges, there is no immediate pressure on the Labour government to increase defense spending, with a sizable portion of the public opposed to further tax hikes for this purpose.
The Opinium poll surveyed 2,050 voters online from 11-13 November.
